How many can the world support?

	Population Change	Annual Growth Rate
Table 1
World Population Dynamics
Millions of People
	1960-2018	1960-2018
China	726	1.28%
European Union	104	0.39%
India	902	1.91%
Japan	34	0.54%
Latin America and Caribbean	421	1.86%
Middle East and North Africa	344	2.53%
Rest of the World	1,034	1.61%
Sub-Saharan Africa	851	2.72%
United States	146	1.03%
World	4,562	1.60%
Source: World Bank and Economic no nonsense calculations.

	1961	1970	1980	1990	2000	2010	2016
Table 2
World Population Dynamicss
Population density (people per sq. km of land area)
China	70	87	105	121	134	142	147
European Union	98	105	110	113	115	119	121
India	155	187	235	294	355	415	445
Latin America and Caribbean	11	14	18	22	26	29	31
Middle East and North Africa	10	12	16	23	28	34	39
Sub-Saharan Africa	11	14	18	24	31	41	48
United States	20	22	25	27	31	34	35
World	24	29	35	41	48	54	58
Source: World Bank.

January 4, 2020

World population growth has been slowing down consecutively over the past six decades, from an annual rate of 1.97% in the 1960's to 1.16% in the 2010's. In general growth rates have been decreasing in most regions of the world in accordance with what is happening in the United States. It is worth noting that with a seemingly low annual average population growth rate of 1.6% the world added 4.6 billion inhabitants between 1960 and 2018. Despite this large change production has adjusted to accommodate the additional demand. However, the uncertainty remains if this can continue indefinitely; if there is an optimal population growth rate and whether there is an ideal number of inhabitants for the world's limited resources. Can the additional 3 billion people projected by the end of this century be also supported? These questions have been explored thoroughly leading to different approaches and conclusions. What most people would agree with is that the role of technological progress cannot be ignored when addressing the subject.

	1961	1970	1980	1990	2000	2010	2016
Table 3
World Population Dynamics
Arable land (hectares per person)
China	0.16	0.12	0.10	0.11	0.09	0.08	0.09
European Union	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.25	0.24	0.21	0.21
India	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.13	0.12
Latin America and Caribbean	0.38	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.27	0.28	0.28
Middle East and North Africa	0.46	0.36	0.27	0.21	0.17	0.13	0.12
Sub-Saharan Africa	0.55	0.50	0.35	0.31	0.26	0.22	0.21
United States	0.98	0.92	0.83	0.74	0.62	0.50	0.47
World	0.37	0.32	0.27	0.24	0.23	0.20	0.19
Source: World Bank.

Until now various factors together with technological progress have made it possible to support larger and larger numbers of people and improved living standards, including more and better education. There has been an apparently limitless ingenuity in transforming resources into usable products and a supernatural one to adapt to new and more restrictive conditions. Although, this capacity seems boundless the world has limits. For example, if population were to multiply incessantly density will eventually reach intolerable conditions. While, we may be able to adapt again to this new reality there is no question that living standards would have deteriorated.

Optimistically, long before that unbearable situation is realized the world will find a way to avoid it in a "self regulating" manner. Population would eventually reach a "stationary optimum" before the earth's resources and environment were completely depleted. It is desirable that as societies mature their populations expand, reach a plateau and then adjust. The beginning of this change may already be in progress, reflected in lower annual rates of growth.

In the past 60 years there was a 2.5 size rise in population. Many people thought that the earth would not be able to handle such demographic impact. Today a much larger number are grateful about the resiliency of natural resources and the ability of the economy to adjust.