The U.S. Asian Population amidst the Pandemic
October 26, 2020
After examining almost all segments of the U.S. population and how they have fared amidst the Covid-19 Recession, there are still some left to consider. The largest of those is surely the Asians, group that has gained increasing recognition during the last two decades. Asians are defined by the U.S. bureau of the Census as "A person having origins in any of the original peoples of the Far East, Southeast Asia, or the Indian subcontinent including, for example, Cambodia, China, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippine Islands, Thailand, and Vietnam ". The age under scrutiny is the 16 years old or older segment of the Asian and Non-Asian populations.
| Table 1 | |||||||||||||
| Labor Market (Population 16 years or older) | |||||||||||||
| September (Numbers in millions) | |||||||||||||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2020 - 2019 | 2020 / 2019 | Indicator | Asian | Non-Asian | Total | Asian | Non-Asian | Total | Asian | Non-Asian | Total | Asian | Non-Asian | Total |
| Total Population 16 years or older | 16.4 | 243.2 | 259.6 | 16.7 | 244.2 | 260.8 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| Employed | 10.3 | 148.0 | 158.3 | 9.6 | 138.0 | 147.6 | -0.7 | -10.0 | -10.7 | -6.8% | -6.8% | -6.8% | |
| Unemployed | 0.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 0.7 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 260.2% | 112.0% | 118.7% | |
| Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed | 10.5 | 153.5 | 164.1 | 10.5 | 149.6 | 160.1 | 0.0 | -3.9 | -3.9 | -0.2% | -2.5% | -2.4% | |
| Not in Labor Force | 5.9 | 89.7 | 95.5 | 6.2 | 94.5 | 100.7 | 0.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | |
| Unemployment Rate = Unemployed / Labor Force | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 260.9% | 117.5% | 124.0% | |
| Number of Jobs Lost | 0.9 | 10.6 | 11.5 | ||||||||||
| Jobs Lost % of Pop. 16 or older | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | ||||||||||
| Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Economic no nonsense calculations. | Note 1: Data is seasonnally adjusted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. | Note 2: Non-Asian data and Number of Jobs Lost for Population 16 years or older were calculated by Economic no nonsense. | Note 3: Asian population includes persons having origins in any of the original peoples of the Far East, Southeast Asia, or the Indian subcontinent including, for example, Cambodia, China, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippine Islands, Thailand, and Vietnam. | ||||||||||
Table 1 compares the Labor market developments for the Asian and Non-Asian populations between 2019 and 2020. The current unemployment rate (September of 2020) among Asians, 16 years old or older, is 8.9% while the one for Non-Asians of the same age cohort is 7.8%, with increases of 261% and 118% respectively.
While the number of Asians employed in the U.S. had a proportionally equal decrease of 6.8% to the rest of the population, between September of 2020 and September of 2019, the proportion of those unemployed increased by 260% compared to 112% for Non-Asians and 114% for the population as a whole. Of all the population groups considered thus far, Asians are the one with the largest increases in unemployment and the unemployment rate. This similarity indicates that few Asians, despite the deep Covid-19 Recession have dropped out of the labor force.
Asians are the population segment with the largest increase in unemployment and the unemployment rate of those studied this month in; "Labor Market September 2020", "Labor Dynamics September 2020", "Labor Market Distress September 2020", "Additional Labor Market Inequity", "Other Labor Market Developments 2020", "Native and Foreign Born Labor" and "Latinos and the Covid-19 Recession". They are also one of the fastest growing population groups, and the one with the highest per-capita income and educational level. The similarity in the changes in unemployment and the unemployment rate indicate that few Asians, despite the deep Covid-19 Recession, dropped out of the labor force between 2020 and 2019.
Graph 1 illustrates, among others, the latter point. In effect, the top-left panel shows the average yearly population growth rates for Asians (yellow bars) and for Non-Asians (blue bars).
The Asian’s population average growth rate between September of 2020 and September of 2003 was 3.5% propelling this group to increase its share of the total population from 4.2% to 6.4% during the same period. It seems that a similar problem of undercounting, like in the Latino segment, is present here due to the large correction observed in 2012, apparently a delayed revision of the 2010 Census.
The bottom-left panel shows the relative size of the Asian population, labor force and employment with respect to the total of each of these variables for the country. Thus, for example, in September of 2019 the Asian population was 6.3% (black dotted line), the labor force 6.4% (yellow area) and employment 6.5% (grey area) of their respective totals. The fact that employment was relatively larger than the labor force should indicate that the unemployment rate amongst Asians is lower than the one observed within Non-Asians.
Indeed, the top-right panel of graph indicates how the "Asian unemployment rate" has been consistently lower than for Non-Asians excepting 2003, the first year of this series, and 2020 due to the Coronavirus Recession. Not even the Great Recession was able to overturn this situation showing the unprecedented nature of the current economy. The black line shows the difference between the Non-Asian (blue area) and Asian (yellow area) rates.
The bottom-right panel of Graph 1 plots the Index of Participation for Non-Asians by the blue line and by the yellow line for Asians. The index corresponds to the change from year (t-1) to year t, from a base year equal to 100, of the share of population ith 16 years old or older employed in year t as a percentage of the total population ith 16 years old or older divided by the share of the population ith 16 years old or older employed in year t as a percentage of the total population 16 years old or older. In this case the base year is 2003 when the participation index for the two populations was set to 100.
Since 2003 the Index of Participation has shown an increasing tendency for both populations as shown by the dashed lines. However, it is also clear that the Asian index has shown a large degree of variation as confirmed by the lower R2 of the trend line, generating much more uncertainty among this population group. Also, the trend lines despite having a positive slope might eventually meet and even cross, showing a relative decline in Asian "participation".
